Brace for Harsh Winter: La Niña Set to Bring Severe Cold Waves to India
India is gearing up for a colder-than-average winter this year, with meteorologists warning that La Niña conditions are likely to trigger severe cold waves across the country. The phenomenon, named “Little Girl” in Spanish, is characterised by unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between La Niña’s cooling and El Niño’s warming phases.
Following one of the heaviest monsoons in recent years, which caused widespread flooding, landslides, and cloudbursts, the country may soon face an equally extreme winter. Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the US Climate Prediction Center suggest that this La Niña episode could be among the strongest in recent years, developing with a 71 per cent likelihood by the end of 2025. Northern India is expected to be the hardest hit, with frigid air penetrating deep into the plains, leading to prolonged cold spells.
How La Niña Impacts Weather
During La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific near South America are cooler than average, while the western Pacific near Indonesia and Australia experiences warmer waters. This temperature gradient disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns, often causing temporary global cooling. The shift affects jet streams—fast-flowing air currents in the upper atmosphere—pushing them southwards over Asia.This results in harsher winters, frequent cold waves, and heavy snowfall in hilly regions of India.
While La Niña generally brings heavier monsoon rains, which benefit agriculture and replenish groundwater, it also increases the likelihood of harsh winters that can impact crop production, transportation, and daily life in snow-prone areas.
The Climate Change Factor
Experts caution that La Niña’s effects are becoming increasingly unpredictable due to climate change. Rising greenhouse gas emissions can interfere with normal La Niña patterns, sometimes causing unusual weather events, including above-normal temperatures in some regions despite the cooling phase. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has highlighted this growing uncertainty in seasonal forecasts, making it essential for authorities and residents to remain vigilant.
Preparing for the Cold
While La Niña’s return promises benefits for agriculture through enhanced monsoon rainfall in 2025, it simultaneously raises concerns about extreme cold waves. Experts recommend early preparations, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those living in remote areas, to mitigate the impact of the harsh winter. Measures such as ensuring adequate heating, insulation, and access to warm clothing and food are crucial to minimize health risks.
La Niña’s dual impact—a boon for monsoon rains and a challenge for winter—underscores the growing complexity of India’s seasonal weather in the era of climate change. As residents brace for a potentially severe winter, the coming months will test the country’s preparedness for extreme weather patterns.
