US President Donald Trump’s political setback in the midterm elections could have significant implications for India and Pakistan. With the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers of Congress, Trump is likely to face greater scrutiny of his policies and business connections during the final two years of his presidency.
For India, the development could create more room to negotiate trade terms and potentially bring closer scrutiny of the administration’s restrictions on skilled foreign workers. Pakistan, meanwhile, could face questions over business and defence-related agreements it has pursued through connections with Trump’s inner circle.
Although Trump will remain in office until January 2029, a Democrat-controlled Congress could make it harder for him to push his legislative agenda without resistance. Democratic lawmakers have already indicated that they intend to investigate his foreign policy decisions and his family’s business interests.
India May Get More Leverage in Trade Negotiations
Trump’s weakened political position could encourage him to seek a major foreign policy achievement to demonstrate strength to his supporters. A trade agreement with India could become an important priority.
For New Delhi, the election outcome may offer an opportunity to negotiate more favourable terms. India has been reluctant to finalise an agreement without assurances that it will receive better tariff treatment than competitors such as China and Vietnam.
Another challenge is the Trump administration’s investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act. The probe is examining whether India and other countries use strategic excess manufacturing capacity in ways that harm the US economy.
These issues have contributed to the delay in finalising a trade agreement. A politically weakened Trump could give Indian negotiators greater breathing room, reducing pressure to accept unfavourable terms quickly.
However, the change in Congress does not mean that Trump’s tariff powers will disappear. The president can continue using executive authority to impose tariffs, and Democrats cannot automatically reverse those decisions. They can, however, investigate the impact of tariffs on American businesses and consumers, potentially increasing pressure on the administration.
H-1B Visa Restrictions Could Face Greater Scrutiny
Immigration is another area where India’s interests could be affected. Trump’s restrictions on skilled foreign workers, particularly through the H-1B visa programme, have created uncertainty for Indian professionals and US technology companies.
The administration has imposed a USD 100,000 fee for H-1B visas and directed federal agencies to scrutinise applications from companies that lay off American workers.
Indian nationals account for around three out of every four approved H-1B visas, making them a major part of the programme and an important source of skilled talent for America’s technology industry.
Several Democratic lawmakers have criticised Trump’s H-1B measures. With control of Congress, they could examine how restrictions on foreign workers affect American technology companies and the wider economy.
While immediate relief for Indian professionals is not guaranteed, greater congressional scrutiny could create opportunities for a policy reassessment over time.
However, India may also face pressure from Democrats on other issues. Democratic lawmakers have historically raised concerns about religious freedom, minority rights and India’s human rights record, potentially creating fresh diplomatic challenges for New Delhi.
Pakistan’s Deals With Trump’s Inner Circle May Face Questions
For Pakistan, the Democratic takeover could bring a different set of challenges. Islamabad has worked to strengthen its relationship with Trump through diplomatic engagement and business agreements involving people close to the US president.
Among these is a memorandum of understanding with an affiliate of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s cryptocurrency business. US special envoy Steve Witkoff is one of the company’s co-founders.
Pakistan also signed an agreement with US-based drone company Powerus for an unspecified number of unmanned aerial systems. The company has links to Trump’s sons, while Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir played a key role in advancing the arrangements.
Other agreements include a USD 500 million memorandum of understanding with US Strategic Metals to develop critical minerals and a proposed renovation of the Roosevelt Hotel in New York, owned by Pakistan’s national airline. Reports have credited Witkoff with playing a role in facilitating the hotel arrangement.
Democrats have signalled plans to investigate the Trump family’s cryptocurrency ventures, stock trading and business interests involving Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner. Such inquiries could bring greater attention to Pakistan’s dealings with Trump’s inner circle and potentially involve its military leadership.
The Bigger Picture for India and Pakistan
The shift in congressional power could create different challenges and opportunities for the two South Asian neighbours.
India may gain additional negotiating space on trade and see greater scrutiny of immigration restrictions, although disagreements over tariffs and human rights could continue.
Pakistan, on the other hand, could face questions about the business relationships it has developed with people close to Trump.
Ultimately, a weaker Trump does not automatically mean a stronger India-US relationship or an immediate setback for Pakistan. But a more assertive Congress could change the political environment in Washington and influence how both countries manage their ties with the United States.
