The southwest monsoon has now spread across almost the entire country, marking the completion of one of its slowest advances in recent years. However, despite reaching nearly every region, India continues to experience a significant rainfall deficit, creating fresh concerns for farmers, water resources and power generation.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received only 111.8 mm of rainfall between June 4 and July 2, compared to the normal 172.4 mm expected during the same period. This has resulted in a nationwide rainfall deficit of 35%, highlighting that the arrival of the monsoon does not always translate into adequate rainfall.
Monsoon Covers India But Rainfall Deficit Continues
Many people assume that once the monsoon reaches a state, heavy rainfall automatically follows. However, meteorologists explain that the monsoon’s arrival and the amount of rainfall are two completely different aspects.
The IMD’s monsoon advance map simply indicates that weather conditions have become favourable for the southwest monsoon to enter a particular region. It does not guarantee continuous or widespread rain.
This year, although the rain-bearing winds have covered almost all parts of India, rainfall has remained highly uneven, leaving many regions much drier than usual.
Slow Progress Interrupted The Monsoon Season
The 2026 monsoon season began on a positive note with an early arrival over Kerala. Expectations were high for a normal rainy season across the country.
However, the progress soon slowed dramatically.
After entering Kerala, the southwest monsoon stalled for nearly two weeks due to weak atmospheric conditions and unfavourable wind patterns. Even after resuming its journey towards northern India, rainfall remained scattered rather than widespread.
Large parts of central, western and southern India experienced long dry spells during June, preventing the seasonal rainfall total from improving.
Several States Continue To Face Rainfall Deficit
The uneven distribution of rainfall has left many states struggling with below-normal precipitation.
States including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala continue to report deficient rainfall.
Among the worst-affected regions are Gujarat and Meghalaya, where rainfall has fallen into the large-deficit category after receiving between 60% and 99% less rainfall than normal.
On the other hand, some parts of the country have witnessed relatively better conditions.
Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal have recorded near-normal rainfall, while Ladakh, Sikkim and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands have received above-normal precipitation.
This uneven pattern has become one of the defining features of this year’s monsoon season.
El Niño Conditions Affecting Rainfall
Meteorologists believe the current rainfall pattern is largely influenced by developing El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is known for weakening the southwest monsoon by disrupting atmospheric circulation and reducing the formation of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal.
These low-pressure systems play a vital role in carrying moisture deep into the Indian mainland. When fewer such systems develop, rainfall becomes patchy and prolonged dry spells become more common.
Although the monsoon has technically covered almost the whole country, these changing weather patterns have prevented consistent rainfall across several important agricultural regions.
Agriculture And Water Resources Under Pressure
The persistent rainfall deficit has begun affecting India’s kharif sowing season, which heavily depends on timely and adequate monsoon showers.
With rainfall remaining below normal in many farming states, concerns are growing over crop planting and agricultural productivity.
The Centre has already directed various ministries to prepare contingency plans in case the weak rainfall pattern continues through July.
Apart from agriculture, reduced rainfall could also impact reservoir levels, drinking water availability and hydroelectric power generation if the deficit persists over the coming weeks.
Next Few Weeks Will Be Crucial
With the southwest monsoon now established across nearly all parts of India, meteorologists are closely monitoring whether rainfall activity strengthens during July.
The focus is no longer on the monsoon’s geographical spread but on its ability to deliver sufficient rainfall to bridge the existing deficit.
If widespread rainfall improves in the coming weeks, the seasonal shortfall could gradually narrow. However, if the dry conditions continue, India may face a prolonged period of below-normal monsoon rainfall, increasing challenges for agriculture, water storage and energy production.
The performance of the monsoon during the remainder of July will therefore be critical in determining whether the current rainfall deficit can be recovered or develops into a larger concern for the country.
